"The thrill of following the trend in the ringgit is over with the RM3.80/US$1 peg since last September. If not for the peg, the ringgit could have flown over the RM5.00 barrier with free market forces and speculators having their field day. The selective capital-control measures put a break to this freefall. Otherwise, as forecast, the RM/USD could have fallen further to RM5.10 or even as low as RM6.70"

Arifin Abdul Latif
Feb. 1, 1999

Commentaries:

"After reading your detailed Elliott Wave analysis of the KLSE CI, I was really being enlightened on the future outlook of our stock market"

"It was really a  professional piece of analysis"

 
Hong Chin Choong
FBR, Phillip Futures Sdn;
Futures Market columnist, Nanyang Siang Pau 

"Not being a chartist, I am not sure what I can do or say. Although I have made an observation of the apparent relationship between M2 with lag and the KLCI, but the relationship is not strong" 

Prof. Jomo K. S.
Economics Professor, Universiti Malaya

"I have read your article in The EDGE with great interest. And I found that your article provide in-depth analysis"

"Tun Daim is reading chart or Elliot Wave himself"

Raja Shahrul
Futures Market columnist, SmartInvestor

"Stock markets a good climb. Low interest create options put in banks or buy stock the idea is shift from cash to stock"

"Still too soon to predict"

Dr. Hashim Hassan
Special Officer to Finance Minister,
Treasury
 

Budget_BA_figures_only.ppt (615.42 kb) -- (for those interested can email me, or you can requwst from Prof Jomo himself.....)

Wassalam 
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* Prof Ajit Singh is a Professor in International Trade, at Cambridge University, UK.

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arifin wrote: 

> Prof Jomo, 
> > Terima kasih di atas jawapan segera serta ingatan sdra. Saya rasa Graf2 yg sdra kepilkan ini adalah sebahagian drp yg sdra bentangkan dlm BA Budget tempohari (dlm Harakah). That was a good piece of effort, professionally speaking (minus the rethorics) -- apatah lagi bila sdra hanya dapat membuat analisis berpandukan pada rujukan sekunder (plus of course your own research?). Again, that's commendable... 
> > Saya banyak menjalankan kursus/seminar berkisar pada "forecasting topics/ methodologies" di INTAN. My main interest lies in economic/equities research -- khususnya dlm aspek "lead-lag" relationships di antara GDP &  pasaran saham. I have my own views on this (a continuation of my MADE thesis at ANU, way back in 1985 under an ex-IMF "old man"). 
> > And I have written a few short articles in The EDGE on this plus of course some forecasting insights on the direction of the RM/USD (....merits of capital controls?), the economy & the KLCI. We might have opposing views on these ('cos you sounds more like Galbraith insofar as the stock market &  the economy goes?) -- but that's what debates are for. I would appreciate  if you can glance thru them (I'll bring some for you today at the Seminar)  and offer some comments. My analyses combines some economics with  technical analysis/charting. Most people say the two doesn't jive!? But why  can't the two be married, even sparingly (or briefly?). 
> > I have my own "Forecasting Corner" on the Net where I tried to include  some of the main analyses/forecasts dari masa ke semasa. If you can  spare some time please do surf us at: 
www.intanbk.intan.my/edi/edi/default.htm ==> go to Sudut Peramalan; or www.intanbk.intan.my/edi/edi/aal.htm ==> click on the relevant topics. 
> > TQ. 
> > Best Regards, 
> > Arifin Abdul Latif 
> Senior Project Coordinator 
> Program EKONOMI 
> INTAN Kiara.